This project came about after a colleague in Greenland was contacted by former Airbus engineers who developed fixed-wing drones that could be scaled up to monitor most of Greenland’s coastline, monitoring changes in the fjords and glaciers, which is what my team is studying at the University of Bergen right now. It’s an international project where we’re trying to understand the potential risks associated with rapid glacial retreat along Greenland’s coast. This phenomenon has been occurring for decades, particularly in western Greenland, where we’ve seen dramatic changes. One glacier of particular concern is Sermeq Kujalleq (also known as Jakobshavn Glacier), which has been the focus of scientific research for years due to its rapid retreat. This glacier alone drains between 10% and 50% of the total mass of the Greenland Ice Sheet into the drains into the Ilulissat Kangerlua fjord, so it’s a big one—it’s the second-biggest of all the glaciers draining ice from the ice sheet. The glacier has retreated dramatically over the years, accelerating to speeds well above a kilometre per year – to put this in context, another study found that Greenland’s glaciers have retreated 14.8 metres per year on average in the 21st century, up from 7.7 metres per year in the 20th century. Ilulissat Kangerlua is the source of the big icebergs like the one that sank the Titanic. But in recent years, both the locals’ observations and our satellite observations indicate that icebergs are getting smaller. Our goal is to understand why this is happening and what to expect in the future. Our models predict that the glacier is currently grounded on a relatively shallow section of the fjord, but retreating further inland would push it into a much deeper section of the fjord, reaching what we call a tipping point. At that stage, the glacier could rapidly retreat, potentially within the next 10 to 50 years. It could take longer, but we do expect it to happen sooner rather than later, and we want to have a good modelling system in place. This is one of the biggest contributors to future sea level rise, making it very important to assess the scale of its impact to understand how fast and how much it will contribute to sea level rise.

Our work involves modelling sea level changes globally, including how sea levels around Greenland may drop while increasing in the tropics. These shifts present different challenges, but the immediate priority is assessing the impact on the sea level. Drones allow us to monitor these changes in real time, with more detailed, frequent and cost-effective data compared with satellites. Additionally, we work with local communities, as they rely heavily on the fishing industry and changes in runoff and iceberg melt also affect ecosystems and fisheries in the fjords, which has huge impacts on Greenland’s most productive fishing region. This region goes back to the early Inuit and Viking communities and is still the biggest part of Greenland’s economy today. While tourism and mineral exploration are growing industries, fishing is still by far the largest, and people depend on it. That’s why understanding these environmental changes is so important, not just for global sea level rise and climate tipping points but also for local communities and the questions they’re asking. They need to know if it’s safe to go out on the ice when the icebergs are smaller, what is happening to the fisheries, and whether they should invest in a new boat. With drones, we can make these observations autonomously all year round and work together with the community.

What we expect in the near future is that this glacier will thin enough to retreat into a very deep fjord. Essentially, within the next few decades, the glacier will melt sufficiently to lift off from its current shallow position. Once floating, it’s more vulnerable to warm water, surface melting and fracturing, leading to rapid ice loss from the front and continued retreat into deeper water. Once it’s in deeper water, the glacier is even more susceptible to warm ocean currents. Right now, it is pinned by a shallow section of the fjord, which acts as a temporary barrier. But once it moves past this point, nothing can stop it. This is the main concern for communities: as the glacier continues to withdraw even deeper into the fjord, it can keep draining more of the inland ice sheet and result in a rapid contribution to sea level rise. It’s almost like a funnel—once the ice reaches the deep fjord, it breaks off and melts very efficiently. After this tipping point, it becomes nearly impossible for the glacier to advance and stabilise again. Research published last year showed that even under extreme cold conditions, almost a glacial climate or a ‘little ice age’, it would take thousands of years for the glacier to regrow and stabilise in the fjord. This isn’t going to happen in the coming centuries. That’s why this is considered a tipping point—once triggered, the change is irreversible.

One major consequence will be land uplift. As ice melts and its mass is removed, the land underneath rebounds. In some areas, particularly in the inner parts of the fjord, the land is rising by about a metre or more within a few decades. People in the community are noticing that beaches are getting bigger and certain rocks are getting more exposed. This is because the land is rising as the weight of the ice is removed. This shift has important implications for building infrastructure: if you’re building a new cruise terminal, you have to know where the sea level is going to be, and plan for if it’s going to be five metres lower in a few years. The global sea level is rising, but this mostly affects the tropics, so sea levels in Greenland will be decreasing at the local level.

Another concern is the impact on stability in the fjords. When the land rises and the sea level drops, it can destabilise the surrounding slopes, increasing the risk of landslides. This has already been observed in Greenland, with some tragic events where people died. One tsunami triggered by a landslide in the north of Disko Island washed through an entire village, so some regions are now under continuous monitoring. Additionally, land uplift can increase seismic activity, which was seen in post-glacial Scandinavia and is now occurring in Greenland. While the local sea level dropping is more of a practical concern for infrastructure, the biggest concerns are farther afield. The low-lying nations and coastal areas of the world in the tropics are going to see the worst impacts of the melting ice sheet.

Glacier melt also affects ecosystems by creating a surface layer of fresh water in the fjords, which could impact species accustomed to saltwater. More importantly, nutrient-rich water emerges from beneath the glacier. Most meltwater travels through crevasses and moulins, eventually reaching the base of the glacier before entering the fjord. This subglacial water is rich in nutrients and sediments, enhancing productivity in the fjord ecosystem. As a result, glacier-fed fjords are highly productive environments, so this could even have some positive effects, but the effects are still being studied.

The potential of new technology for Earth science, particularly for observing ocean-ice interactions, is amazing. Drones are relatively cheap, can cover vast areas, and provide high-quality imagery at frequent intervals. They can do surface observations, and they can even probe deeper layers by deploying instruments into the fjord, where we would never be able to go due to dangerous ice conditions. Until now, collecting data from these regions required expensive seasonal campaigns using helicopters or research ships. With drone technology, we can now gather data more cheaply, more efficiently and at a much larger scale. The other thing is the integration of machine learning. We can now process large datasets of images almost instantly, looking at slow changes, identifying patterns, and analysing the distribution and size of icebergs in ways that would have previously taken years and required hundreds of PhD researchers. This is an incredibly exciting time to be a scientist because we finally have the tools to observe and analyse changes at the scale they are occurring. The key now is deploying these technologies fast enough to capture critical events as they unfold. Soon, we’re going to deploy autonomous floating drifters that go up and down to measure water column changes. Unlike aerial drones, these drifters operate within the fjord and can collect continuous data throughout the winter, a period where data is hard to get due to harsh conditions. If successful, they will operate for a couple of years, providing valuable insights to train our models and look into the future.

Absolutely. This is what I call blue sky research —the kind of work where you can explore bold, innovative ideas, even those that might seem a bit unconventional or risky. It’s exciting because scientific progress often comes from taking risks and pushing boundaries. That kind of funding allows scientists to think big, to pursue groundbreaking, long-term challenges that may take years to solve but have the potential to significantly advance our understanding of the world. Not every project will succeed, but those that do can push the frontiers of science. We are tackling extremely challenging questions that haven’t been done before. If we succeed, we will have the right tools, in the right place, at the right time to make critical discoveries. It’s essential that agencies like ARIA exist because too often, science funding is very formalised, limiting creativity and risk-taking.

The data we collect will allow us to track changes in real time and continuously refine our models to predict what’s coming over the next year, the next decade and even the next century. This is important to feed into decision-making at both local and global levels. Locally, communities rely on this information daily. For instance, they need to know whether it’s safe to travel in the fjord or whether changing ice conditions will impact fishing and transport. A fisherman might need to decide whether to invest in a new boat that can navigate shifting ice conditions. Last year, for example, local fishermen observed an increase in small icebergs, making sea ice travel more dangerous. As a result, the community might have to reconsider the timing and location of certain activities in the fjord. Of course, the bigger question is how fast and how large will the sea level rise be over the next 100 years? This is the biggest uncertainty for climate scientists right now, because it impacts millions, if not billions, of people living in coastal regions worldwide. With better data and more knowledge comes action and resilience, so that people can prepare and have a softer landing in terms of climate impacts. We can’t avoid the changes, but we can definitely prepare and act so that we have a safer future for everyone.