Peak plastics:

bending the consumption curve

Only bold and sweeping reforms will bend the plastic consumption curve. Achieving a reduction in plastic pollution will require all stakeholders–from the petrochemical companies to the consumers–to control the crisis. A piecemeal approach won’t work.

Full report

Workbook

Methodology

Executive Summary

The world will continue to drown in plastic waste unless a bold and comprehensive set of policy changes are agreed by the UN. To bring about peak plastic consumption, these policies would need to be at the most ambitious end of the spectrum being debated by UN treaty negotiators, which include governments, the petrochemical and consumer goods industries, and environmental groups. This is according to research by Back to Blue, an initiative of Economist Impact and the Nippon Foundation, which models the impact of a selection of policies being considered by world leaders as they draft a legally binding treaty to stem plastic pollution.

We model the impact of: a phased ban on problematic, unnecessary single-use plastic products (SUPPs); a mandatory extended producer responsibility (EPR) regime imposed on brands and retailers that introduce packaging to the market; and a tax on the production of virgin resin designed to redistribute the cost of negative environmental externalities. Our model tests whether any of these, alone or together, can achieve peak plastic consumption before 2050. The analysis is focused on the 19 countries of the G20.

Combined, the policies slow plastic consumption growth, but will not be enough to bring about a peak in plastic consumption by 2050, illustrating the scale of the challenge that lies ahead.

If the negotiators fail to agree on any policy interventions, we project that plastic consumption in the studied G20 countries will nearly double by mid-century.

Lifecycle of waste

1

Extraction & conversion

The majority (99%) of plastic is derived from oil. The majority of plastic resin is produced in North America and Western Europe. China produces nearly a third.

2

Manufacturing & production

Plastic converters modify or combine virgin or recycled materials to manufacture plastic products ranging from carrier bags to car interiors, toothbrushes to drainpipes.

3

Use

Retailers and consumers use under half (45%) of all manufactured plastic in packaging with building and construction using around 19%.

4

Disposal & end of life

Less than 10% of plastic waste generated has been recycled; 14% incinerated and 76% disposed of in landfills or released into the environment. Large amounts of plastic waste are exported with the majority being sent to countries with limited waste management capacities.

Our key findings

Bold reforms needed

None of the three interventions we modelled will bring about peak plastic consumption by 2050. An integrated approach combining all three makes a dent—growth of 1.25 times the 2019 figure, compared with the baseline forecast of 1.73 times.

A ban on problematic, unnecessary single-use plastic items yields the heaviest impact.

A globally agreed ban on single-use plastic products will do more to curb plastic consumption growth than a mandatory EPR and a tax on virgin resin. Under the SUPP ban, plastic consumption in 2050 is 1.48 times the 2019 figure.

EPR will have a minimal impact on consumption, but is a vital part of the solution

EPR policies will require industry players that introduce packaging to the market to cover the cost of collecting and processing it after use. By 2050, consumption will grow to 1.66 times the 2019 figure. EPR is nonetheless vital, as it will improve waste collection and increase recycling rates, which will curtail plastic leakage into the environment.

A carbon tax on virgin plastic must be aggressive to be impactful

An environmental tax would raise the cost on the principal input–virgin resin–helping to redress the existing anomaly of plastic prices that do not fully reflect its true cost to society. Our modelling suggests the impact of such a tax on consumption growth will be limited: consumption in 2050 is likely to be 1.57 times the 2019 figure, not much lower than the 1.73-times growth in our baseline forecast.

234M

Tonnes

2000

460M

Tonnes

2019

765M

Tonnes

2040

1230M

Tonnes

2060

1

million tonnes

3

empire state buildings

460

million tonnes

1,256

empire state buildings

In the absence of concrete policy action, the OECD predicts that plastic consumption could rise to a billion tonnes by 2060.

Source: OECD Global Plastics Outlook Database

Plastic waste GENERATION

Between 2000 and 2019, global plastic waste generated rose from 156 million tonnes to 353 million tonnes, a 126% growth rate. Assuming the UN treaty spurs dedicated action among national governments to combat plastic waste generation, this rate of growth is likely to slow down to 74% by 2040.

Source: OECD Global Plastics Outlook Database

2000

156.2million tonnes

To date, efforts to combat plastic pollution have suffered from three major weaknesses:

Narrow (national) focus:

With the notable exception of the EU, attempts to regulate parts of the plastic lifecycle have been left mainly to national or subnational authorities. Country-level initiatives are too fragmented, however, to generate a significant global impact.

Reliance on voluntarism:

Many governments at national, regional and municipal level have put rules in place on the sale or use of plastics that organisations or individuals must comply with. But many potentially impactful programmes are non‑mandatory.

Limited scope:

It was once thought that recycling was the answer to plastic pollution. But as OECD recycling data confirms, current efforts are not making a big enough impact to dent plastic pollution, much less to support plastic circularity.

UNEP PREDICTS THE AMOUNT OF PLASTIC IN THE OCEAN WILL NEARLY TRIPLE BY 2040, ADDING UP TO 37 MILLION TONNES MORE WASTE EVERY YEAR.

2016

14million tonnes

PEAK PLASTICS LANDSCAPE

By 2050, plastic consumption is expected to almost double without any policy interventions (see baseline series in the chart below). Even with all the selected policy interventions, consumption growth is expected to slow down, but will still be at least 1.25 times the 2019 consumption levels.

Baseline

SCENARIO 1

A phased ban on single-use plastic products (SUPP)

SCENARIO 2

A mandatory EPR scheme imposed on retailers and brands

SCENARIO 3

Plastic tax on virgin resin production

ALL SCENARIOS

SCENARIO 1

A phased ban on single-use plastic products (SUPPs)

A mandatory ban on unnecessary and problematic plastics which have the potential to become litter. Common items banned under this measure include plastic cutlery, tableware, straws and stirrers.

SCENARIO 2

A mandatory EPR scheme imposed on packaging producers and industrial consumers (mainly FMCG companies)

A mandatory EPR policy requires industry players that introduce packaging to the market to cover the cost of collecting and processing it after use.

SCENARIO 3

Plastic tax on virgin resin production

An environmental tax would raise the cost on the principal input–virgin resin–helping to generate funds for scaling plastic waste management solutions and redress the existing anomaly of plastic prices that do not reflect environmental externalities.

INTEGRATED APPROACH

Combining solutions

We also assess the impact of a combined approach of applying all three policy options simultaneously in order to achieve the most decrease in consumption.

The application of each scenario is based on certain assumptions and the outcomes pose some challenges. Below, we discuss each scenario in detail.